Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 2.441902 3.321668 4.563601 6.505288 9.582581e+00 1.449423e+01 2.343671e+01
2025-02-23 1.482421 2.295641 3.661095 6.296504 1.174091e+01 2.385967e+01 5.844845e+01
2025-03-02 0.946783 1.610809 2.881136 5.787402 1.337158e+01 3.684144e+01 1.508739e+02
2025-03-09 0.706026 1.314456 2.638708 6.263155 1.864054e+01 7.771442e+01 7.838083e+02
2025-03-16 0.536501 1.077342 2.393625 6.643732 2.570639e+01 1.784230e+02 9.634595e+03
2025-03-23 0.427990 0.921817 2.258724 7.361552 3.841612e+01 5.473723e+02 2.850809e+07
2025-03-30 0.345611 0.790671 2.114586 8.026334 5.751851e+01 2.245167e+03 NaN
2025-04-06 0.268872 0.640660 1.820865 7.724946 7.150593e+01 8.575901e+03 NaN
2025-04-13 0.209382 0.514160 1.530086 7.082909 8.148308e+01 3.785912e+04 NaN
2025-04-20 0.176886 0.452436 1.434820 7.529232 1.220232e+02 4.280161e+06 NaN
2025-04-27 0.156221 0.418048 1.425289 8.688665 2.244480e+02 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 0.139643 0.390003 1.426648 10.142344 4.588781e+02 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 0.120591 0.348156 1.346893 10.887035 8.562023e+02 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 0.101298 0.298337 1.194278 10.470228 1.231005e+03 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 0.084419 0.251700 1.029297 9.503924 1.482942e+03 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 0.075330 0.231012 0.992607 10.373681 3.543630e+03 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 0.067194 0.211094 0.947021 11.074398 9.239783e+03 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 0.061165 0.197408 0.930155 12.424648 4.343961e+04 NaN NaN
2025-06-22 0.055673 0.183984 0.905723 13.693144 3.838824e+05 NaN NaN
2025-06-29 0.049071 0.163775 0.821257 13.101204 1.499596e+06 NaN NaN
2025-07-06 0.042919 0.143841 0.726967 11.867496 3.009254e+06 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 0.039426 0.134518 0.703281 12.711383 3.727487e+11 NaN NaN
2025-07-20 0.037188 0.130055 0.713032 14.950732 NaN NaN NaN